ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. – You may have seen the above image on social media over the weekend.
This is an outlook distributed by the National Hurricane Center four times a day, every day during hurricane season. The text on the image is what I added for explanation context.
It is something that has been a product of the NHC for a long time. Now, with greater graphics from TV stations or even just people at home, it has become something that can be easily shared on social media.
These prospects discuss the statistical probability that a tropical cyclone could develop over different time frames, over the next 48 hours and then 3 to 5 days. First, it is important to understand that a tropical cyclone in this context does not necessarily mean a hurricane or even a tropical storm. It simply means a low-pressure area with tropical or warm core features.
In this case, we’re following a top-level non-tropical feature above Tennessee that will be moving south in the coming days. Tuesday, as it moves south with a frontal trough, a low-pressure surface may form in Georgia or the Florida Panhandle. After that, it could find its way to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Once in the Gulf, it seems that if anything, it will drift west or west to northwest the following week.
Here are the takeaways …
First, since last week, our forecast for the coming week was to increase the chances of rain because of the frontal trough I mentioned to draw deeper moisture to Florida from the Southwest, so nothing has changed for your planning purposes.
Second, in this case, the probability of developing a “tropical cyclone” over the 3 to 5 day period is moderate. Remember that in the tropics this can sometimes just mean a warm core area with low pressure.
Third, should a tropical cyclone develop in the Gulf, it seems very unlikely that any significant development will be expected any time soon after development. In other words, this doesn’t seem to be such a big deal.
Finally, it is important to remember that when you see such images on social media, you should always inquire at a trusted source for more information, because such a thing is far too complicated to explain and tackle in a tweet and possibilities and communicates uncertainties and potential effects or effects is our job here in the Spectrum Bay News 9 Weather Center.
So I encourage you to spend your day … make sure you have your umbrella with you as the chance of rain is higher in the forecast.