WEATHER BLOG: NOAA Bumps Chances of an above average hurricane season

NOAA Satellite Image of Hurricane Barry in July

The NOAA Climate Forecast Center has updated the forecast for the heart of the 2019 hurricane season.

Historically, most major hurricanes in the Atlantic are from mid-August to mid-October. According to government predictors, El Nino has now ended up in the Pacific and we are in neutral conditions there.

“El Nino typically suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic, but now that it’s over, we’re facing a busy season,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., head of the seasonal hurricane at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

They have increased their chances of an above-normal season to 45 percent (up from 30 percent at the end of May). The chances of almost normal activity are now 35 percent and a lower than normal season has dropped to 20 percent.

Final forecast 2019:

Named Storms: 10-17 (there have already been two Named Storms)

Hurricanes: 5-9 (there has already been one)

Major hurricanes: 2-4

On average, the Atlantic hurricane season causes 12 named storms, six of which become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. NOAA’s hurricane season outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a forecast of landings. Waterfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week after a storm may reach a shoreline.