WEATHER BLOG: CSU team is still predicting the ‘almost normal’ hurricane season

Generic Hurricane

The Colorado State Tropical Forecast Team of Philip J. Klotzbach, Michael Bell and Jhordanne Jones released their regularly scheduled August 5 update to their Hurricane Season Forecast for 2019. Despite the fairly calm conditions in the tropics from August 5, they still expect more activity as we enter the heart of the season from mid-August to September.

“We continue to predict an almost normal Atlantic hurricane season 2019. The expected number of hurricanes has risen slightly to account for the short-lived hurricane Barry that started in July. The surface temperatures of the sea in the tropical Atlantic Ocean remain almost average. Although the likelihood that a weak El Niño will persist through August-October has decreased, the vertical wind shear in the Caribbean remains relatively high. The likelihood of major hurricanes making landfall along the U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean remains close to the long-term average. ”

Named Storms: 14 for the season, 12 for the rest of the season

Hurricanes: 7 for the season, 6 for the rest of the season

Major hurricanes: 2

JULY OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE LARGE (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDSCAPE IN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS OF THE UNITED STATES:

1) Entire U.S. coastline – 53 percent (full season average for the last century is 52 percent)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Florida Peninsula – 31 percent (full season average for the last century is 31 percent)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville – 31 percent (full season average for the last century is 30 percent)

“As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane to make landfall to make it an active season. They should prepare the same for each season regardless of how much activity is predicted. ”

Link to full report: https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2019/08/2019-08.pdf

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