FiveThirtyEight Editor-in-chief and influential political statistician Nate Silver said presidential candidate Mike Bloomberg is in “many problems,” Wednesday, after dropping national and state polls after his two minor debates.
“Bloomberg is in serious trouble. His national polls are delayed or starting to turn around, “Silver claimed on Twitter. “It has dropped to 11% in our CA polling average. In other Super Tuesday states, we don’t see the leads that we saw before the NV discussion; they are many things in the teenage years and in the twenties.”
Bloomberg is in serious trouble. His national polls have been delayed or are starting to turn around. It has fallen to 11% in our CA polling average. In other Super Tuesday states we do not see the leads that we saw before the NV discussion; they are many things in the teenage years and in the twenties.
– Nate Silver (@ NateSilver538) February 26, 2020
“Nor is there an obvious way to turn it around for Super Tuesday,” he continued and noted that Bloomberg, “is not competing in SC.”
“His performance in the debate last night had improved IMO, but the first poll suggests voters didn’t like it,” Silver added. “It’s not even clear what he wants to happen in SC. If Bernie wins, Bernie can open a * very * formidable lead through Super Tuesday, and although Bloomberg might be 2nd (a) it’s probably a distant 2nd and (b) er is much more proof of a Bloomberg ceiling than a Bernie ceiling. “
Silver also claimed that if Biden “SC wins, the race remains more open, but Biden has a fairly clear claim to be the best alternative to Sanders and, according to our projections, would probably end up comfortably for Bloomberg in ST delegates.”
“So Bloomberg may be in a fairly distant 3rd place,” Silver concluded.
FiveThirtyEight’s Democratic Primary prognosis currently places Bloomberg behind Sanders and Biden, with a chance of thirty.
A new Progress Texas / Public Policy Polling survey also found that Sanders and Biden were tied with 24 percent support above the primary in Texas, followed by Bloomberg with 17 percent. An important finding of the survey was that although Bloomberg jumped in to stop Sanders, he actually transfers 7% support from Biden and helps Sanders.
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