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NASCAR Race Opportunities in New Hampshire: Expert Choices and Favorites to Win Sunday’s Race

Choosing a winner based on the odds for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at the New Hampshire Speedway (3pm ET, NBCSN) is challenging because the “Magic Mile” is such a unique circuit.

The 1,058-mile oval in Loudon, NH is so flat with 2- to 7-degree variable banking in the corners that it basically drives like a short track and eats tires. The relatively slow nature of the track is why Sunday’s race is only 301 laps and 318.46 miles.

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The Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 is the only true NASCAR Cup Series race in New Hampshire this season as the circuit now hosts one Cup race per year after receiving two per year from 1997-2017. So the driver who has won the last Cup races in New Hampshire is of course the favorite for Sunday’s event.

Below are the full Vegas chances of winning Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race in New Hampshire, plus our top three picks of drivers who could take the checkered flag.

NASCAR chances of winning in New Hampshire

Kevin Harvick is a relatively easy choice as a favorite for Sunday’s race. He has won the last two cup races in New Hampshire and leads all active drivers with four career wins on the track. He is also the NASCAR Cup Series points leader after 19 races in 2020 with four wins in the season.

Denny Hamlin is just behind Harvick with three career wins in New Hampshire and comes out of his best fifth win of the 2020 season. That’s why he’s a close second behind Harvick on the quote board.

Below are the full chances of winning Sunday’s NASCAR race in New Hampshire, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

DriverChance to win the race in New Hampshire
Kevin Harvick+420
Denny Hamlin+480
Kyle Busch+800
Martin Truex Jr.+900
Ryan Blaney+900
Brad Keselowski+1000
Chase Elliott+1000
Joey Logano+1400
Aric Almirola+2400
Alex Bowman+3100
Kurt Busch+3100
Christopher Bell+3500
Erik Jones+3500
Jimmie Johnson+3500
Matt Kenseth+4700
William Byron+4700
Clint Bowyer+5500
Cole Custer+5500
Tyler Reddick+5500
Matt DiBenedetto+7500
Austin Dillon+8500
Ryan Newman+8500
Brennan Poole+20000
Bubba Wallace+20000
Chris Buescher+20000
Corey LaJoie+20000
Daniel Suarez+20000
JJ Yeley+20000
Joey Gase+20000
John Hunter Nemechek+20000
Michael McDowell+20000
Quin Houff+20000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.+20000
Ryan Greece+20000
Timmy Hill+20000
Ty Dillon+20000

Below are the top 10 driver ratings in New Hampshire among active racers:

  1. Denny Hamlin, 103.6
  2. Kyle Busch, 102.4
  3. Jimmie Johnson, 99.1
  4. Kevin Harvick, 98.5
  5. Brad Keselowski, 98.4
  6. Martin Truex Jr., 95.0
  7. Matt Kenseth, 92.7
  8. Chase Elliott, 90.7
  9. Kurt Busch, 89.9
  10. Ryan Newman, 88.2

Hamlin will start the race on Sunday in second place and in the front row with pole-sitter Aric Almirola. That’s good news for both, as the front row has yielded 18.75 percent of New Hampshire Cup Series winners. The first start position is the most skilled in the field and produces more winners (six) than any other start position on the circuit.

Below is the breakdown of wins to the starting position in the history of cup racing (48 races in total) in New Hampshire.

Start position% To winWins
1st12.5 percent6
First row18.75 percent9
Top 527.08 percent13
Top 1052.08 percent25
Outside top 2018.75 percent9

The top 10 starters for Sunday’s race in New Hampshire (as determined by a random draw of the top 12 teams based on owner points) are as follows:

  1. Aric Almirola
  2. Denny Hamlin
  3. Chase Elliott
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Kyle Busch
  6. Clint Bowyer
  7. Kevin Harvick
  8. Alex Bowman
  9. Joey Logano
  10. Kurt Busch

MORE: Complete the starting grid for the race in New Hampshire

NASCAR on New Hampshire’s Expert Choices

(Driver loop data is from 2005 to the present)

1. Kyle Busch

Career statistics in New Hampshire:

  • Three wins, 11 top five, 16 top 10s; three poles
  • Average finish of 12.607 (eighth best)
  • Average running position of 11,334 (fourth best)
  • Driver rating of 102.4 (second best)

He should win sometime this season, right? It could just as well end up on a track where he tends to run well and where Joe Gibbs Racing achieves 11 wins, most for any organization on the one and a half mile track. If he has the speed, we know that KFB has the talent to get on board in 2020.

2. Brad Keselowski

Career statistics in New Hampshire:

  • One win, seven top five, 12 top 10s; four posts
  • Average finish of 11,000 (second best)
  • Average running position of 10,921 (third best)
  • Driver rating of 98.4 (fifth best)

Statistically, Keselowski is the best of the three Team Penske drivers in New Hampshire, although his only Cup Series win on the track came back in the summer of 2014. He led 12 laps in this race last year after starting on the pole , and his Speed ​​of the team this season suggests he can finish the job in 2020.

3. Denny Hamlin

Career statistics in New Hampshire:

  • Three wins, 10 top five, 15 top 10
  • Average finish of 9,885 (best run)
  • Average running position of 10,697 (best run)
  • Driver rating of 103.6 (best series)

This would mean an absurd sixth victory in 2020 for Hamlin, but the number 11 JGR Toyota driver is just too good in New Hampshire not to include as a choice to win. He drove 113 laps in this race last year and barely finished second to Harvick.

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