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How Fierce Primaries, Abortion and Inflation Transformed the 2022 Map

Republicans can also boast of the most racially diverse list of House candidates they’ve ever drawn, including 29 Hispanic contenders, 26 black candidates, six Asian Americans or Pacific Islanders, and three Native Americans. Wasserman calculated that 61 percent of Republican candidates in the swing districts were women, people of color and military veterans. Many of those veterans come from special forces and have remarkable biographies.

“House Republicans have an all-star cast of candidates running to protect the American dream and deliver the kind of common sense policies that Democrats have failed to achieve,” said Michael McAdams, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House campaign arm. Republicans.

In November, those individual stories may matter little.

With just a five-vote swing standing in the way of a Republican majority, the GOP still prefers to take control of the House, but how big the party’s majority is will most likely be determined more by the bigger political issues – inflation, economics, abortion and democracy – than by the candidates themselves.

The Senate may be different, and the past may be a prologue. In 2010, as the effects of the financial crash continued and the Tea Party movement energized conservatives, Republicans stormed into the House majority and held it in 2012. But Republicans couldn’t take the Senate until 2014, in part because poor candidates chosen in the primary: Christine O’Donnell of Delaware and Sharron Angle of Nevada in 2010 and Richard E. Mourdock of Indiana and Todd Akin of Missouri in 2012.

Under pressure from Mr Trump, Republicans may have outdone themselves in 2022. Mr. Walker, a former football star with no political experience, has struggled with his challenge to Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock, once seen as arguably the most vulnerable Democrat ever. for reelection. With the political wind in his face, another freshman Democrat, Mark Kelly of Arizona, has benefited immensely from Mr. Masters’ inexperience and a past full of weird views. Mr Trump loved the celebrity of Dr. Oz, but overlooked the power of attacks over his wealth and his lack of connection to Pennsylvania.