Business is booming.

Computer simulates AFL Brownlow Medal count 10,000 times and pinpoints only two players who can win

Footy’s night of nights is coming this Sunday, and statistics experts who ran 10,000 computer simulations have concluded that there are only six players who can win the coveted Charles Brownlow Medal.

However, two in particular – Clayton Oliver and 2020 winner Lachie Neale – are way ahead of the rest, with a strong preference for the medal affectionately known as ‘Chaz’.

Popular sports statistics website Statistics Insider recently published their predictions for the number of medals in 2022, simulating voting more than 10,000 times to “find the most likely outcome.”

One of the most popular betting events on the Australian sports calendar, it also gives avid gamblers the opportunity to find the best value and safest results for a night that has seen many a curveball in the past.

Port Adelaide midfielder Ollie Wines raises his glass after being anointed as the 2021 Brownlow Medal winner

Port Adelaide midfielder Ollie Wines raises his glass after being anointed as the 2021 Brownlow Medal winner

Neale has been dynamic for the Lions this year and is considered to have a 37.1 percent chance of winning; while Oliver, who finished third in last year’s tally, is seen as having a 35 percent chance.

In essence, it is almost an irreversible proposition that one of the two optimistic midfielders will win the medal.

After them, the challengers drop dramatically.

Lachie Neale, the winner of 2020, is one of the favorites to take out 'Chaz' this year

Lachie Neale, the winner of 2020, is one of the favorites to take out 'Chaz' this year

Demons midfielder Clayton Oliver is also expected to get a lot of votes

Demons midfielder Clayton Oliver is also expected to get a lot of votes

Lachie Neale (left) and Clayton Oliver (right) are expected to be the two clear favorites for the Brownlow Medal on Sunday night

Carlton superstar Patrick Cripps is the next closest with half the odds of the first two – although he looks set to be a slot for the podium (84.6 percent) if the simulation has anything to offer.

Touk Miller, Andrew Braysaw and Christian Petracca are the only other players seen as a distant possibility of taking the medal, with everyone else completely written off.

The betting markets seem to be evolving in a similar way to Stats Insiders’ forecast, although it will be one of the closest finishes in recent years.

Stats Insider's guide to the 2022 Brownlow Medal features a computer that simulated the more than 10,000 times

Stats Insider's guide to the 2022 Brownlow Medal features a computer that simulated the more than 10,000 times

Stats Insider’s guide to the 2022 Brownlow Medal features a computer that simulated the more than 10,000 times

It’s only the second time since 2012 that the favorite has gone under $3, with bettors likely to get a lot of bargains unlike 2020 when Neale won for $1.20.

You can find Neale and Oliver at most agencies for under $3.75, with Cripps’ price hovering around $5.50.

Of course, Brownlow Medal predictors are nothing new.

Every year, avid footy fans feverishly fill their spreadsheets every week with their own formula to whom the umpires will assign their votes.

Dynamic Dees utility Christian Petracca, who has been heavily polling for the Brownlow Medal for the past two years, is again a favorite to rack up some votes

Dynamic Dees utility Christian Petracca, who has been heavily polling for the Brownlow Medal for the past two years, is again a favorite to rack up some votes

Dynamic Dees utility Christian Petracca, who has been heavily polling for the Brownlow Medal for the past two years, is again a favorite to rack up some votes

The Stats Insiders model has correctly predicted the winners and all the top five placegetters from the past two years, in addition to crowning the eventual winners.

Here’s all the information you need to know for footy’s night of nights…

When

The AFL has officially moved the date of the Brownlow Medal to avoid a potential clash with Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral.

Lachie Neale's wife Julie kisses him on the cheek after Lions midfielder knocked out 2020 Brownlow count

Lachie Neale's wife Julie kisses him on the cheek after Lions midfielder knocked out 2020 Brownlow count

Lachie Neale’s wife Julie kisses him on the cheek after Lions midfielder knocked out 2020 Brownlow count

The Code’s biggest night of the year – traditionally held on the Monday before the grand final – was originally scheduled for September 19 at Melbourne’s Crown Casino.

But AFL chief executive Gillon McLachlan has confirmed that the awards will now be presented on Sunday, September 18.

The count begins at 7:00 PM AEST.

Where

This year’s medal will be held at its traditional home, the Crown Casino in Melbourne, after Covid forced the medal to be held in Perth and multiple TV studios to cope with the pandemic requirements.

Carlton skipper Patrick Cripps arrives at Brownlow last year with glamorous fiancée Monique Fontana

Carlton skipper Patrick Cripps arrives at Brownlow last year with glamorous fiancée Monique Fontana

Carlton skipper Patrick Cripps arrives at Brownlow last year with glamorous fiancée Monique Fontana

How

At the end of the home and away game throughout the season, umpires vote on a 3-2-1 basis for the best and fairest players in the match.

Players suspended during the season are not eligible to win.

In a tie, multiple winners can be crowned – something that has only happened 11 times in nearly 100 years of the medal.

Who

This year’s event is hosted by Channel 7 duo Hamish McLachlan and Rebecca Maddern.

As usual, AFL CEO Gillon McLachlan will read out the votes from each game.

Port Adelaide star Ollie Wines took the medal last year: who will take 'Chaz' home in 2022?

Port Adelaide star Ollie Wines took the medal last year: who will take home 'Chaz' in 2022?

Port Adelaide star Ollie Wines took the medal last year: who will take home ‘Chaz’ in 2022?

Broadcast

The Brownlow Medal will be broadcast live on Channel 7 from 7pm AEST, starting with everyone’s favourite: the red carpet.

Previous winners

  • 2021: Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide) – 36 votes
  • 2020: Lachie Neale (Brisbaane) – 31 votes
  • 2019: Nat Fyfe (Fremantle) – 33 votes
  • 2018: Tom Mitchell (Hawthorn) – 28 votes
  • 2017: Dustin Martin (Richmond) – 36 votes
  • 2016: Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong) – 35 votes
  • 2015: Nat Fyfe (Fremantle) – 31 votes
  • 2014: Matt Priddis (West Coast) – 26 votes
  • 2013: Gary Ablett Jr (Gold Coast) – 28 votes