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Californian voters strongly support Trump's accusation of poll shows

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While House Democrats are advancing in their attempt to remove President Trump from their positions, a new poll finds that California voters are deeply divided along party lines, with a majority supporting deposition.

More than 8 out of 10 self-identified democrats in the state support Trump's removal and removal from office, while about 8 out of 10 self-identified Republicans oppose this, according to the latest poll by the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies conducted for the Los Angeles Times.

Independent individuals who do not rely on either party closely split on charges, with 40% for and 36% against. That is a relatively small group, but only about 1 in 8 California voters, because most self-identified independents tend to one party or the other.

(Chris Keller / Los Angeles Times)

Nationally, voters are closely divided about deposition, polls show. But in California, where Democrats greatly outstrip Republicans, the sharp gulf between the partisans translates into a strong margin for depositing Trump – 57% in favor, 30% against, with 13% saying they don't know or feel it that it is too early to say.

The majority of voters in California prefer the President's removal

(Chris Keller / Los Angeles Times)

The partisan gap also means broad approval from the two Californian Democrats who have led the settlement process in the House – Speaker Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco and the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, representative Adam B. Schiff of Burbank.

However, what it doesn't mean is a significant change in the way voters view Trump or his potential re-election – a lack of movement reflected in national polls.

The president has not been popular in California since taking office in 2017 and a large majority of state voters are opposed to him. That has not changed: California appears to be on track to reject Trump's re-election bid, probably by a historical margin.

But the accusation crisis has not deteriorated its position. Nor does it seem to have changed their mind on either side.

Almost all partisans, on both sides, say they feel "strong" about their positions.

“The net effect of two-week hearings broadcast on television appears to have deepened California voters in their previously held party positions on the president. Few thoughts have changed, & said Mark DiCamillo, the Berkeley Institute poll director.

The roughly 1 in 8 voters who remain insecure also say overwhelmingly that they do not pay attention to the accusation struggle, following the typical pattern that the voters who follow the news most often are the most party.

Overall, 42% of state voters said they were following the news of the accusation closely, another 40% said they were following something closely, while 18% said they were not paying attention.

The poll of 3,482 registered voters throughout the state was held from 21-27 November – after the completion of the two weeks of public hearings that the intelligence committee held in mid-November. The results for the full voter sample have an estimated error margin of 2.5 percentage points in both directions.

The House Judiciary Committee will hold a public hearing on Wednesday, and is expected to start preparing accusation articles later this month. The entire House of Representatives is expected to vote on deposition before Christmas.

If the accusation goes by – it seems anything but insured given the majority of the Democrats in the Chamber – the Senate would probably go to court in January.

When asked about what the Senate should do, voters in California divided the same way they did in a house accusation – 55% said senators should condemn Trump and remove him from office, while 28% said they shouldn't and 17% were undecided or said it was too early to know.

In general, 50% of voters were in favor of both a house charge and a senate conviction, while 39% were against both and 7% were in favor of the house that Trump was accusing, but were either against the senate condemning him or not sure.

The findings of the poll "really demonstrate the clotting of party lines when it comes to Trump," said Eric Schickler, professor of political science at Berkeley. "It's a stark contrast to Watergate, where over time you saw republicans come up with the idea that President Nixon should go."

"There is more news, more surprises in this presidency than almost all, and yet his approval score has remained the same," and how people think about deposition has largely been matched or approved of Trump, he added.

When Pelosi first announced on 24 September that the House would start an accusation investigation, many political analysts predicted that the movement would harm the prospects of the Democrats, just as President Clinton's accusation inflicted damage on the Republicans a generation ago.

That didn't happen. Instead, both in California and at national level, deposition seems to have united the factions of the Democrats.

With 50% to 32%, Democrats in the state said they want Democrats in Congress to focus on depositing Trump. Republicans, overwhelmingly, said that Democrats in Congress should focus on other national priorities.

The two sides also share whether the accusation process has been fair, with nearly 8 in 10 Democrats saying the trial has been fair and impartial, while just over 8 in 10 Republicans say it didn't happen.

Schiff, who led the trial in the Intelligence Commission and is likely to continue to do so if the House votes to send the accusation to the Senate for trial, has gained status among Democrats, which could help him if he pursues office-wide government, as he has done long considered.

Four years ago, when Senator Barbara Boxer announced her retirement and Schiff was thinking of entering the race to replace her, a survey in the Los Angeles Times found that only 19% of people around the world felt that they knew enough to have an opinion.

Now about three-quarters of voters in California have an eye on him, making him in the same state as Sens. Dianne Feinstein and Kamala Harris, who succeeded Boxer.

Overall, 44% of state voters approve Schiff's work performance, the poll found, while 31% disapproved, a more favorable ratio than one of the senators. The poll showed that voters were somewhat negative about Feinstein's performance, 46% approval to 52% disapproval, and equally divided between Harris, 50% to 49%.

As with the accusation made known to him, the views on Schiff are very party-oriented: Democrats approve his work performance at 70% to 7%, while Republicans reject 80% to 7%.

Pelosi views are also party-related. Overall, state voters approve their work performance at 53% to 46%. Democrats approve 81% to 19%, while Republicans disapprove of it, 91% to 8%.

Pelosi, like previous speakers of the House, has been a polarizing figure for much of her tenure. But Republican efforts to make her the center of their mid-term election campaign ran flat in 2018 when Democrats regained control of the House.

The speaker's decision to lead Schiff and the Intelligence Committee in charge of investigating charges has & # 39; paid off for the party and for Schiff personally & # 39 ;, said Schickler.

"There is a long history of Congress members raising their profile by conducting prominent hearings. Schiff gives another example."

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